March Madness is upon us. First Round games have started, brackets are locked, and everyone should have a Fandex account to get involved with the sports stock exchange. We broke down a few teams worth buying on the Friday docket. We’re looking at Saturday’s games to see which teams provide value in the Fandex Sports exchange.
Colorado Buffaloes
The Colorado Buffaloes enter their First Round game against the Georgetown Hoyas as 5.5 point favorites. From a Fandex perspective, the Buffs have a 1.19 predicted win total, which implies that they should be able to move past the Hoyas into the second round. Based on our analysis, they are good candidates to back early in the NCAA Tournament.
Colorado has an efficient offense that puts up points. They don’t play with a whole bunch of pace, but they make opponents pay for fouls with the second-ranked free-throw percentage. The Buffs don’t take a bunch of threes, but they make the ones they take count. Colorado averaged 36.7% from beyond the arc this season, which was the 52nd-ranked three-point percentage. With their methodical offense that doesn’t push the tempo, ball protection is key for Colorado. They had the 30th-fewest turnovers in the NCAA this season which will be critical to long-term success in the post-season.
The Hoyas had a magical run to the Big East title, but it’s unlikely they would have made the Tournament if not for capturing the Big East Championship. In net efficiency terms, the Hoyas ranked 55th in the nation, and 10 teams ahead of them didn’t make the big dance. They played a good defensive brand of basketball, but have one of the worst offensive efficiencies in the tournament, with only a handful of tournament teams ranking below them.
Colorado’s stock should rise on Saturday, making them a team to back in the First Round. Depending on their Second Round matchup, it could be worth hanging onto longer than just one round.
USC Trojans
The USC Trojans game against the Drake Bulldogs will be a good efficiency test between markets. The betting market at FanDuel Sportsbook has the Trojans installed as 6-point favorites. However, the market at Fandex has already moved on Drake and has their predicted win total and share price above the Trojans.
Both teams have efficient offenses with solid output. When adjusted for strength of schedule, USC ranks 28th and Drake ranks 30th. Where these teams differ is in defensive metrics. The Trojans are ranked 20th in the nation in defensive efficiency, whereas the Bulldogs are ranked 98th.
Drake barely managed to sneak past the Wichita State Shockers and their 68th-ranked offense. It seems unlikely that they’ll be able to suppress a talented USC squad that has put up 70+ points in seven of their last 10 against better defenses than Drakes.
You can get a piece of the Trojans for a discounted price, as their share price has already tumbled to 9.64. Don’t pass it up.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
The odds-on favorite to win it all also has the highest predicted win total of the tournament at 3.22, which is exactly as expected. What’s unexpected is that this share price hasn’t moved all that much since the tournament started.
Gonzaga is currently trading at 10.07 at Fandex. Despite having a relatively unobstructed path to the Elite Eight. Getting past Norfolk State is a formality, as the Bulldogs are 33.5 favorites. From there, Gonzaga will have to get past one of the Missouri Tigers or Oklahoma Sooners, both of whom lack the defensive structure to limit the Bulldogs.
The third round onwards is where their competition will start to stiffen up. At worst, Gonzaga will have to get past the defending Champs, the Virginia Cavaliers, and then Iowa Hawkeyes. At best, they’ll get an easier draw that will only force their share price up even higher. Regardless, Gonzaga is the team to beat this tournament, but they are not yet priced as such.
Even if the Bulldogs don’t win it all, you can at least hang on to the shares through most of the tournament and sell at the right time for a decent ROI. This price will only get higher as the tournament goes on. Get on Gonzaga now.